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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily

ExchangeDailyETFEquities
LimitlessLimitlessClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC

This market resolved: No (98.7%)

Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 1.3%
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$0

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

-

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale
Jun 16, 26, 8:00 PMJun 17, 26, 8:00 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes1.3%
No98.7%
0%25%50%75%100%Jun 16Jun 17Jun 17
Outcome24hChance
Yes
Yes
1.3%
No
No
98.7%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

KalshiAlso available on Kalshi

S&P 500 Daily Up/Down

S&P 500 Daily Up/Down

Closed

Resolved

No (98%)

Yes
Yes
2%
No
No
98%
40 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$357.7
24h Vol$357.7
KalshiKALSHI

Rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on June 17, 2026, is strictly higher than the Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on the most recent prior trading day.

Limitless
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down".


    The Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) captured on June 16, 2026, was $750.32005.


    Resolution source: Pyth SPY/USD price feed.

  • Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used.


    For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's Close price with the previous Friday's Close price, unless that Friday was a market holiday.

  • In that case, it would compare against Thursday's Close price, or the next most recent trading day.


    If S&P 500 ETF (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session on June 17, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down".


    For a standard full trading session, the Close price refers to the "Close" value of the 1-minute Pyth candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.


    If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective Close price.


    If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which SPY is listed will be used to determine the Close price for that day.


    In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on June 17, 2026, is strictly higher than the Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on the most recent prior trading day.

Limitless
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down".


    The Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) captured on June 16, 2026, was $750.32005.


    Resolution source: Pyth SPY/USD price feed.

  • Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used.


    For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's Close price with the previous Friday's Close price, unless that Friday was a market holiday.

  • In that case, it would compare against Thursday's Close price, or the next most recent trading day.


    If S&P 500 ETF (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session on June 17, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down".


    For a standard full trading session, the Close price refers to the "Close" value of the 1-minute Pyth candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.


    If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective Close price.


    If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which SPY is listed will be used to determine the Close price for that day.


    In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.