KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Outright Winner (98%)
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, 10:15 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Outright Winner
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
59%
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Outright Winner
- Recorded
- Jul 19, 2026, 10:32 PM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityOutright Winner 93.3%+40.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$289.5K
Liquidity
$592.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
97.0% / 99.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleMay 8, 26, 2:00 AMJul 27, 26, 2:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Runner-Up2%
Outright Winner98%
Round of 321%
93.3%
1.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Outright Winner
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 98% | — | $289.5K | $592.4K | 7 days ago | |
 Polymarket88% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $55.8K | $0 | 6 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
World Cup: Spain Stage of Elimination
40.5 ptsClosed
Resolved
Champion (100%)
+40.5pt100%
0%
-0.1pt0%
+5 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$2M
24h Vol$55.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If Spain is eliminated in the Group Stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the purposes of this Contract, if a team withdraws, forfeits or is disqualified at any point during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, their stage of elimination will be determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to withdrawal, forfeit or disqualification.
- For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the market titled "Round of 16" will resolve to Yes since that would be the next stage where they would have been eliminated had they continued competing.
- Note: If a team loses in the Semifinals, the market titled "Semifinals" will resolve to Yes, regardless of whether they win the third-place match.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.1k98.0%KALSHIOutright Winner — Yes8d ago
KALSHIOutright Winner — Yes8d ago$1.6k86.0%KALSHIOutright Winner — Yes8d ago
KALSHIOutright Winner — Yes8d ago$2.9k58.0%KALSHIOutright Winner — Yes12d ago
KALSHIOutright Winner — Yes12d ago$2.7k27.0%KALSHIQuarterfinals — Yes17d ago
KALSHIQuarterfinals — Yes17d ago$2.0k20.8%POLYMARKETWill Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? — Yestkenmn18d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? — Yestkenmn18d agoVolume trend
$289.5kJul 218d of dataJul 19
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If Spain is eliminated in the Group Stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the purposes of this Contract, if a team withdraws, forfeits or is disqualified at any point during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, their stage of elimination will be determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to withdrawal, forfeit or disqualification.
- For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the market titled "Round of 16" will resolve to Yes since that would be the next stage where they would have been eliminated had they continued competing.
- Note: If a team loses in the Semifinals, the market titled "Semifinals" will resolve to Yes, regardless of whether they win the third-place match.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.