Current implied probability
72° to 73° 16%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.1K
Liquidity
$3.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 20.0%
Spread
100.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 3, 26, 2:00 PMJul 5, 26, 6:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
72° to 73°16%
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If the minimum temperature recorded at Chicago for Jul 4, 2026, is less than 68° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIMDW can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lot, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Chicago - Midway, IL" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.