Current implied probability
70° or below 99%+61.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$79.5K
Liquidity
$57.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 2:00 PMJul 4, 26, 6:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
70° or below99%
Related Markets
Lowest temperature in Chicago on Jul 4, 2026?
$2.9K72° to 73°: 14%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Highest temperature in LA on Jul 3, 2026?
$369.4K75° or above: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Highest temperature in NYC on Jul 3, 2026?
$311.5K100° to 101°: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?
$107.3K31°C: 63%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?
$88.8K33°C: 46%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?
$79.3K29°C: 58%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Together AI Raises $800M Series C for Open-Source AI PushBlockchain.News
NVIDIA Expands U.S. AI Manufacturing with $500B VisionBlockchain.News
NVIDIA Adds Vulkan Descriptor Heaps Support, Boosting GPU PerformanceBlockchain.News
Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta is working on a points-based prediction market app: reportCrypto News
Meta Developing Standalone Prediction Markets App Arena to Rival Polymarket and KalshiBlockchain Reporter
Meta is developing a prediction market app called ‘Arena’ as sector booms: NYTCoindeskRules
If the minimum temperature recorded at Chicago for Jul 3, 2026, is less than 71° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIMDW can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lot, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Chicago - Midway, IL" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.