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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/18 - 5/24)
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/18 - 5/24)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/18 - 5/24)

70.0% (24h)
KalshiKalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

This market resolved: Above 40 (97%)

Resolved: May 27, 2026, 1:53 PM

Winning Outcome

Above 40

At 7 days out

—

At 24 hours out

51%

Current implied probability
Above 40
Above 40 97%+70.0%
Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality

63 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$933.6

Liquidity

$1.5K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

96.0% / 97.0%

Spread

1.0%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 16 days ago

Stale
May 19, 26, 2:10 PMAug 24, 26, 2:00 PM

Probability Timeline

Above 4097%
Above 3099%
Above 501%
Above 2586%
Above 2098%
Above 1587%
Above 753%
Above 1099%
Above 1003%
Above 599%
0%25%50%75%100%May 26May 26May 27
Outcome24hChance
Above 40
Above 40
+70.0%
97%
Above 30
Above 30
+41.0%
99%
Above 50
Above 50
-8.0%
1%
Above 25
Above 25
+68.0%
99%
Above 20
Above 20
+33.0%
98%
Above 15
Above 15
+4.0%
99%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

Rules

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The total is calculated by summing daily counts from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026.
  • The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
  • If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 20 from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (6/8 - 6/14)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (6/8 - 6/14)

$147.2
Above 30: 33%KalshiKALSHI

Rules

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The total is calculated by summing daily counts from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026.
  • The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
  • If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 20 from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.