Current implied probability
70° or below 3%-7.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16.5K
Liquidity
$14.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 4.0%
Spread
33.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 2:00 PMJul 16, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
70° or below3%
Volume trend
$16.5kJul 142d of dataJul 15
Related Markets
Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jul 16, 2026?
$564.574° or above: 10%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Highest temperature in LA on Jul 15, 2026?
$336K86° or above: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Highest temperature in NYC on Jul 15, 2026?
$94.3K96° or below: 43%KALSHI
KALSHI
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 16?
$44.6K16°C: 57%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Highest temperature in London on July 16?
$34.2K28°C: 47%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 16?
$32K80-81°F: 39%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
NVIDIA Explores RLVR for AI Agents with Nemotron 3 SuperBlockchain.News
X.ai Launches No-Code Voice Agent Builder for Grok VoiceBlockchain.NewsNVIDIA Expands U.S. AI Manufacturing with $500B VisionBlockchain.NewsGoogle Expands Gemini Spark to macOS, Adds New App IntegrationsBlockchain.News
Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 5 Closes In on Opus 4.8 at a Fraction of the PriceDecryptAI Legal Document Review Gains Momentum in 2026Blockchain.NewsRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 15, 2026, is less than 71° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.