Current implied probability
70° to 71° 99%+61.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$58.4K
Liquidity
$48K
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 2:00 PMJul 4, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
70° to 71°99%
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 4?
15.5%3h
+15.5%45%
+12.0%28%
21%
+8 more outcomes
77 • High qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$26.9K
24h Vol$17.9K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 3, 2026, is less than 66° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 3, 2026, is less than 66° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.