Current implied probability
78° or above 16%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$2.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 8.0%
Spread
33.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 10, 26, 2:00 PMJul 12, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
78° or above16%
Compare venues· 72° to 73°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | Medium | 34% | — | $12.2K | $46.5K | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Low | 29% | — | $2.9K | $2.2K | 9 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Seattle on July 11?
7.0%9h
+13.0%34%
+12.5%25%
-7.0%22%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$12.6K
24h Vol$12.2K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at Seattle for Jul 11, 2026, is less than 70° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISEA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Seattle-Tacoma, WA" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.9kJul 102d of dataJul 11
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If the maximum temperature recorded at Seattle for Jul 11, 2026, is less than 70° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISEA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Seattle-Tacoma, WA" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.