KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability106° or below 60.4%+58.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$55.5K
Liquidity
$40.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
63.0% / 64.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 2:00 PMJul 29, 26, 7:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
106° or below64%
Volume trend
$55.5kJul 272d of dataJul 28
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If the maximum temperature recorded at Phoenix for Jul 28, 2026, is less than 107° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIPHX can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=psr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Phoenix, AZ" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.