KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability80° to 81° 38.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$34.5K
Liquidity
$24.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
40.0% / 41.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 39 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 2:00 PMJul 30, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
80° to 81°42%
Compare venues· 80° to 81°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Gemini
Highest temperature in NYC on July 29, 2026?
21h
36.8%
30%
17.3%
+3 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$481
24h Vol$481
GEMINI
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in NYC on July 29?
6.5 pts5h
+18.0pt37%
+16.0pt25.9%
-0.5pt25%
+8 more outcomes
77 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$25K
24h Vol$18.1K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 29, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 76°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 29, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 76-77°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$34.5kJul 282d of dataJul 29
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FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 78 F on July 28, 2026?
$39.2KYes: 2%FORECASTEX
FORECASTEXActive in these topics
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If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 29, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 76°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 29, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 76-77°, then the market resolves to Yes.