Current implied probability
81° to 82° 26%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6K
Liquidity
$5.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
23.0% / 25.0%
Spread
8.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 10, 26, 2:00 PMJul 12, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
81° to 82°26%
Compare venues· 83° to 84°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | Medium | 52% | — | $9.1K | $50.7K | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Medium | 51% | — | $6K | $5.1K | 6 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 11?
10h
52%
21%
17%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$9.1K
24h Vol$9.1K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 11, 2026, is less than 81° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 11, 2026, is between 81-82° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$6.0kJul 102d of dataJul 11
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If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 11, 2026, is less than 81° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 11, 2026, is between 81-82° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.