Current implied probability
90° to 91° 1%-18.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$78.6K
Liquidity
$44.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 2:00 PMJul 9, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
90° to 91°1%
Compare venues· 88° to 89°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · auto | High | 28% | — | $15.6K | $51K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis pageMost active | High | 99% | — | $78.6K | $44.6K | 7 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 9?
9h
28%
27%
18%
+8 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$15.6K
24h Vol$15.6K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 08, 2026, is less than 86° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 08, 2026, is between 86-87° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$78.6kJul 73d of dataJul 9
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If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 08, 2026, is less than 86° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 08, 2026, is between 86-87° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.