Current implied probability
95° or below 2%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.9K
Liquidity
$6.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
100.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Jul 25, 26, 2:00 PMJul 27, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
95° or below2%
Compare venues· 96° to 97°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | Medium | 51% | — | $11.5K | $34.3K | 6 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Medium | 56% | — | $6.9K | $6.3K | 26 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Austin on July 26?
0.5%4h
+4.0%51%
+0.5%35%
-7.0%7%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$13.1K
24h Vol$11.5K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 26, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 96°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 26, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 96-97°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.0k99.0%KALSHI95° or below — No4h ago
KALSHI95° or below — No4h agoVolume trend
$6.9kJul 252d of dataJul 26
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If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 26, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 96°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 26, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 96-97°, then the market resolves to Yes.