KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 2:16 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Above 4.5% · —
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Stored price
Above 6.0% 49.5%Market line of 7 lines
Above 6.0% 49.5%Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$646.7
Open interest
$1.3K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above 4.5%Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 4, 26, 12:00 AM UTCOct 30, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 4.5%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employment Cost Index, not seasonally adjusted and in current dollars. Q3 2026 refers to the 12 months ending September 2026, not the change during the quarter. Resolution uses the first officially published value at BLS’s reported precision. Subsequent revisions are ignored. This statistic measures national employer health-benefit cost growth, not a particular employer’s insurance premium renewal increase. Delayed or unavailable data will be handled under the governing contract.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 4.5%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.0%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.5%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6.0%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6.5%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 6.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 7.0%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 7.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 7.5%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 7.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.