KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 6.0% (38%)
Resolved: Oct 30, 2026, 1:56 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 6.0%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 6.0%38%
Above 6.5%4%
Above 5.5%0%
Above 7.5%3%
Above 4.5%99%
Above 5.0%99%
Above 4.5%Lost
Above 5.0%Lost
Above 6.0%Won
Above 6.5%Lost
Above 7.0%Lost
Above 5.5%Lost
Above 7.5%Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employment Cost Index, not seasonally adjusted and in current dollars. Q3 2026 refers to the 12 months ending September 2026, not the change during the quarter. Resolution uses the first officially published value at BLS’s reported precision. Subsequent revisions are ignored. This statistic measures national employer health-benefit cost growth, not a particular employer’s insurance premium renewal increase. Delayed or unavailable data will be handled under the governing contract.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 4.5%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.0%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6.0%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6.5%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 6.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 7.0%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 7.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.5%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 7.5%
- If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 7.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.