KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 8:04 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Oscar Piastri 0%Leader of 22 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownSpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 3:12 PM UTCSep 20, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Rules
If the named outcome has the largest positive differential between their starting grid position and their finishing position in the main race at the 2026 Spanish Grand Prix originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FIA
- Ties / Dead Heats: If multiple drivers tie for the greatest position differential, “Yes” positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied drivers, and “No” positions will pay 1 minus the "Yes" payout.
- Official ties (grid or finish) keep the tied position number for all affected drivers; the next position skips ahead accordingly (e.g., a tie at P2 → 1, 2, 2, 4).
- Eligibility for Yes/No: Drivers must have both an official starting grid position and an official classified finishing position to be eligible for a Yes resolution.
- Resolves No if the driver fails to qualify, doesn't participate, DNS, DNF without a classified position, or is DSQ'd.
- If a driver DNFs but the governing body still assigns them a classified finishing position, that position counts for finishing position differential.
Open markets
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Total Vol
- $14.2M
- 24h Vol
- $13.1M
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Total Vol
- $18.1K
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $2.5M
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Spanish Grand Prix: Biggest Mover?
- Kalshi prices Oscar Piastri at 0% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Spanish Grand Prix: Biggest Mover resolve?
- Spanish Grand Prix: Biggest Mover is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2026.
- How is Spanish Grand Prix: Biggest Mover settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome has the largest positive differential between their starting grid position and their finishing position in the main race at the 2026 Spanish Grand Prix originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.