KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 games (70%)
Resolved: Oct 30, 2026, 4:37 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 games
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 3:12 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 games36%
Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 games70%
Carlos Alcaraz -7.5 games2%
Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 gamesWon
Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 gamesLost
Carlos Alcaraz -7.5 gamesLost
Rules
If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 1.5 games in the Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The following market refers to the Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Quarterfinal. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 games
- If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 1.5 games in the Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 games
- If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 4.5 games in the Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Carlos Alcaraz -7.5 games
- If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 7.5 games in the Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.