KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 3, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 games 46%Market line of 3 lines
Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 games 46%Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
—
Open interest unknownSpread
19.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Oct 3, 26, 8:55 AM UTCOct 18, 26, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 5m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiCarlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov: Exact Match Score
KalshiCarlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov: Set 1 Winner
KalshiRules
If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 5.5 games in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The following market refers to the Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Quarterfinal. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Carlos Alcaraz -2.5 games
- If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 2.5 games in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 games
- If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 5.5 games in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Carlos Alcaraz -8.5 games
- If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 8.5 games in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.