KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 games 40%Market line of 3 lines
Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 games 40%Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$11.7
Open interest
$11.7
Low open interestSpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Oct 2, 26, 3:15 AM UTCOct 17, 26, 2:00 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 5m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 6.5 games in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The following market refers to the Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Round Of 16. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 games
- If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 3.5 games in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 games
- If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 6.5 games in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Carlos Alcaraz -9.5 games
- If the game differential in favor of Carlos Alcaraz across the full match is above 9.5 games in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
