FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 4:26 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
No 100%
No 100%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownTraders
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Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Trends
Rules
This market resolves on whether the WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports a higher globally averaged concentration of nitrous oxide in 2026 than in 2025.
- The 2026 figure is expected in the Bulletin published in the second half of 2027, and the 2025 baseline is the value in Bulletin No. 22.
- FULL DETAILS
- If the WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin that first reports global nitrous oxide (N₂O) concentrations for 2026 (expected as Bulletin No. 23, in the second half of 2027) shows a globally averaged surface mole fraction of nitrous oxide for 2026 higher than the 2025 value published in the preceding WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (No. 22), this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The 2026 figure is an annual average, so measurements from all of 2026 count, including those made before this market was published; values for any other year are not taken into account, except the 2025 value used as the baseline.
- The Primary Designated Source is the World Meteorological Organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (Global Atmosphere Watch), published at wmo.int.
