Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 6, 2026
LateinamerikaOne-OffWetterWartet auf Auflösung
PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Idaho 96%Führend unter 40 Optionen
Idaho 96%Marktqualitat
34 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
1502,5 €
Liquidität
457,2 €
Niedrige LiquiditätSpread
49.9 pt
Breiter SpreadKommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Minuten
1. Okt. 26, 13:00 UTC8. Okt. 26, 13:00 UTC
Trends
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 0,1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 10% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 15% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 20% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 25% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
- States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for October: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, the named outcome, the named outcome, the named outcome, the named outcome, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, the named outcome, the named outcome, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, the named outcome, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
- A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week.
- Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.