Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
<1.10ºC 38%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Marktqualitat
26 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
17,6 €
Liquidität
696,8 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
9.0% / 66.0%
Spread
57.0 pt
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
28. Juli 26, 17:501. Sept. 26, 3:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
<1.10ºC38%
Volumentrend
$2028. Juli2T Daten29. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
2237,9 €1.20–1.24ºC: 63%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Global Average Temperature July 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
191,6 €July 2026 less than 1.095C: 0.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
10.742,2 €1st hottest: 64%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
10.793,1 €SpaceX: 87%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
7182 €Ja: 39%
KALSHI
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
0,1 €Ja: 38%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
Regeln
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
- An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.