Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
1st hottest 52%-11.5%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat
52 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
238,5 €
Liquidität
11.980,5 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
6.0% / 7.0%
Spread
16.7%
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Minuten
6. Juli 26, 18:4931. Juli 26, 0:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
1st hottest52%
Volumentrend
$2727. Juli4T Daten10. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
2221,5 €Ja: 23%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Global Average Temperature July 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
607,6 €July 2026 less than 1.095C: 2.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
10,2 €1.20–1.24ºC: 45%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
0 €Ja: 23%KALSHI
KALSHI
Who will perform at the World Cup final halftime show?
83.787,3 €Bad Bunny: 9%KALSHI
KALSHIWhen will Starship flight 13 happen?
8167,3 €Before 2026-02-01: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIn diesen Themen aktiv
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This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
- Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.