Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffSociety & Culture1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 91.4%
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Will "Dario probably doesn't believe in superintell..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If a room feels off the lighting is probably ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Not Pinning Your OpenRouter Provider Might In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a Disaster is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Offene Märkte
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+46.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.9pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 659.882,3 €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-6444%
- 65-8925%
- <4019%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 23.823 €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- Yes-17.0pt68%
- No32%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3164,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2633,9 €
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes+4.0pt18%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18.136,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1035 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.363,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 952,8 €
KALSHIUS test scores in Math in 2026?
- No significant difference+8.0pt39%
- Significant decrease-6.0pt34%
- Significant increase-31.4pt10%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 49.823 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 91% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? entschieden?
- Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.