Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 62.7%
Prognostiker
19
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet3. Dez. 23, 21:11 UTC1. Jan. 41, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Winds of Winter be released?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketNASA lands on the moon?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if the next A Song of Ice and Fire book, The Winds of Winter, is released before the first human sets foot on Mars.
Offene Märkte
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 342.752,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 91.191,2 €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 182.400 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 90.788,6 €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+25.1pt47.2%
- No Bond chosen-3.1pt18.9%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+8.0pt46%
- Jack Barton-4.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt18%
+27 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 264.563,9 €
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-53.0pt14%
- Above 50-56.0pt8%
- Above 55-48.0pt2%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 84.327,3 €
- Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Steam: Weekly Top Seller
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
- #2 US Spotify Song 2026
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 63% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars? entschieden?
- Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars? soll am 1. Januar 2041 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if the next A Song of Ice and Fire book, The Winds of Winter, is released before the first human sets foot on Mars.