Aktuelle Community-Prognose
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert23. Okt. 24, 23:37 UTC24. Okt. 26, 22:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsIs Peter Todd Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?
KalshiWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.
- Tyler Cowen (2024), https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/10/does-it-matter-who-satoshi-was.html
- What matters is the state of affairs when this market closes.
- I have entered the close date as 2026-10-24 and will not change it.
- I will use my judgement to determine whether “we” know who Satoshi is.
- Public evidence available prior to market close that convinces me is sufficient.
Offene Märkte
CryptoPOLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.4pt100%
- 74,000+1.4pt100%
- 68,000100%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 935.990,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 714.511,2 €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+0.8pt95%
- $50M+10.0pt95%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $77,000 or above98%
+77 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 567.248,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 564.277,4 €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $79,365.65 target
- No84%
- Yes16%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 482.816,1 €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $78,700 or above99%
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,600 or above99%
+97 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 402.973,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 382.598,4 €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,2 Mio. €
- What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 95% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? entschieden?
- Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? soll am 24. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.