Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 64.7%
Prognostiker
32
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet6. Jan. 24, 11:10 UTC1. Jan. 00, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will we get room temperature superconductors before we discover alien life?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before 2034?
Manifold MarketsNear room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 25, 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before January 1st 2100.
- My intention with this market is to provide a way to capture the crux of whether people think RTAP superconductors are technically feasible from questions of rates of technical progress/discovery (but clearly I had to pick some timeline for it to be able to realistically resolve).