Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 61.9%
Prognostiker
28
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet9. Jan. 23, 18:13 UTC1. Jan. 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?
Manifold MarketsWill Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiNext Israeli Minister of Defense?
PolymarketRegeln
Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.