Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Viktor Orban return as prime minister in 2030??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 85% (Stand: 31. Oktober 2026).

Wie wird Will Viktor Orban return as prime minister in 2030? abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 85%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

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Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden

Veraltet

3. Okt. 26, 21:31 UTC31. Dez. 30, 11:00 UTC

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Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Viktor Orbán is officially sworn in or appointed as Prime Minister of Hungary at any point during the calendar year 2030 (January 1, 2030, to December 31, 2030, inclusive).
This market resolves to NO if the year 2030 ends and Viktor Orbán has not been officially appointed or sworn in as Prime Minister of Hungary.
If the next Hungarian parliamentary election is postponed beyond December 31, 2030, and Orbán does not become Prime Minister within the year 2030, the market will still resolve to NO.
The official Hungarian Gazette (Magyar Közlöny) and reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC News) will serve as the primary sources of truth.
In the April 2026 Hungarian general election, Péter Magyar and his pro-European, center-right Tisza Party achieved a landslide supermajority, ending Viktor Orbán’s 16-year consecutive tenure.