Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 85%
Prognostiker
30
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 48 Minuten
Verzogert14. Juni 24, 06:37 UTC1. Jan. 31, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will housing prices in Arlington VA fall by more then 15% in two years.
Manifold MarketsUS housing starts for October
KalshiWill US Housing Starts exceed 1,400,000 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill US Housing Starts exceed 1,500,000 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill US Housing Starts exceed 1,600,000 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill US Housing Starts exceed 1,300,000 in December 2026?
ForecastExRegeln
This market resolves to "Yes" if at any point between June 13, 2024 and December 31, 2030, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index experiences a drop of 20% or more from its previous peak value.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Data Source: The data source for determining housing prices will be the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
- Calculation Method:
- Identify the peak monthly values of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index from June 2024 to December 2030.
- Monitor the index values following the peak.