Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 99%
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet23. Juni 26, 05:46 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:20 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will attend Aella’s plzdontkillus
Manifold MarketsWill Aella publish an insider account of Thiel's Dialog conferences/"secret society"?
Manifold MarketsElbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
KalshiRegeln
The Aella market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Aella/a-major-publication-is-doing-a-prof)
- This market resolves YES if the above market resolves YES.
- If that market resolves NA or to a partial percentage, this resolves NO.
- If anything weird happens, the spirit of this market is to depend on the Aella market's final resolution, not any temporary accidental resolutions or anything like that.
Offene Märkte
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 30.812 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 18.020,8 €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 8662,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 7665,7 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.353,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 516,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 516,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 136.317,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 419 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the linked Aella market resolve YES??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 99% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the linked Aella market resolve YES? entschieden?
- Will the linked Aella market resolve YES? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the linked Aella market resolve YES? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The Aella market: