Will the Fake Dan Sullivan Effect the Results of the Alaska Senate Election?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahlUS-Zwischenwahlen 202630T
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 77.1%
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet29. Okt. 26, 05:44 UTC1. Dez. 26, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Impostor Dan Sullivan finish third in the Alaska Senate election?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExSullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?
PolymarketWill Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s vote total exceed Peltola's winning margin in Alaska's Senate race?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market is binary and resolves based on whether the presence of candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. demonstrably changes the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election according to official tabulated results from the Alaska Division of Elections.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to YES if the following conditions is satisfied:
- Ranked-Choice / Margin Outcome: Incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan does not win the election, AND the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. exceed the final margin of victory between the winning candidate and Dan S. Sullivan
- If incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan wins re-election, or if Mary Peltola (or another challenger) wins by a margin greater than the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. without an election reversal via court order, the market will resolve to NO.
- Note: The market creator may modify or clarify the numerical threshold or specific counterfactual definition before election day.
