Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 71.8%
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26
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet1. Aug. 26, 14:44 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Situational Awareness raises new capital by which date?
PolymarketSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
PolymarketWill Situational Awareness LP raise fresh capital after its July 2026 unwind?
Manifold MarketsWill Citadel start a prediction market making desk by the midterms?
Manifold Markets$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketCalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
KalshiRegeln
[tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.
- Compares Situational Awareness (incl. renames/successors managing substantially the same funds) vs. Citadel Advisors.
- Citadel Securities is a market maker with no AUM and doesn't factor in.
- Uses the latest figure for each firm dated on or before Dec 31, 2029, from company statements, regulatory filings, or credible financial press (Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/Reuters); both figures must be within 12 months of each other.
- If a net AUM figure is unavailable for either firm, Form ADV regulatory AUM is used for both.
- YES iff SA's figure strictly exceeds Citadel's.
Offene Märkte
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 180.117,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 180.117,2 €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt57.6%
- 65-89+13.0pt34.3%
- 90-114+0.5pt4%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt97%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet+0.1pt1%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 182.086,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 60.431,6 €
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 72% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? entschieden?
- Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: [tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.