Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 09:52 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 97.7%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet22. Jan. 26, 04:51 UTC24. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWhat payloads will the first paid Rocket Lab Neutron launch carry?
Manifold MarketsJ. D. Vance join the SSPX in a public manner before Christmas Eve 2028?
Manifold MarketsTesla Roadster delivered by which date?
PolymarketWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen to OpenAI by 1st January 2029
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- Neutron will resolve YES if Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket completes its first orbital flight before December 25, 2026.
- The first flight is expected to be in mid-2026, with the first flight vehicle expected to be shipped to Wallops during the first quarter of 2026.
- Resolution will be based on official confirmation from Rocket Lab or credible space industry sources (e.g., Spaceflight Now, NASASpaceflight.com) that the rocket has successfully reached orbit.
- A successful first flight requires reaching orbit; reaching suborbital altitudes or clearing the pad does not count.
- The market resolves NO if the first orbital flight does not occur by December 25, 2026.
