Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
WeatherOne-OffTrade PolicyMacro & EconomyManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 67.6%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 19 Stunden
Veraltet31. Aug. 23, 17:01 UTC1. Jan. 50, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsJones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?
PolymarketMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
PolymarketWhich Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsLowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026
KalshiRegeln
Rising global temperatures over the past few decades have caused a significant reduction in arctic sea ice, so much so that as soon as the next decade, the Arctic may well be ice free during the summer.
- Though there is much alarm being raised about that, there is also interest in opening up the Arctic sea routes to commercial traffic via initiatives such as the Polar Silk Road.
- But, how much seaborne traffic is it likely to contribute by 2050?
- Will resolve as "Yes" if by 2050 more than 20% of all transoceanic freight is routed through the Arctic.
- Else it will resolve "No".
Offene Märkte
WeatherPOLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- 32°C+90.5pt100%
- 25°C or below-0.1pt0%
- 26°C0%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 141.050,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 129.051,1 €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- 22°C+77.4pt100%
- 17°C or below-1.1pt0%
- 18°C-4.0pt0%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+68.5pt100%
- 21°C or below-0.3pt0%
- 22°C-0.9pt0%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above87.6%
- 91° to 92°7.6%
- 89° to 90°1.9%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 72.154,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 71.773,9 €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+44.0pt99%
- Chicago+13.0pt99%
- Houston64%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 71.632,8 €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
- 28°C+47.0pt100%
- 24°C or below0%
- 25°C-0.1pt0%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Milan on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 9?
- Highest temperature in London on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Taipei on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 9?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 68% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050? entschieden?
- Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050? soll am 1. Januar 2050 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Rising global temperatures over the past few decades have caused a significant reduction in arctic sea ice, so much so that as soon as the next decade, the Arctic may well be ice free during the summer.