Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 50% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?
RohstoffeOne-Off3JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 21.10.2026, 01:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 64.3%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert gestern
Veraltet1. Okt. 23, 13:55 UTC2. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 80% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?
Manifold Markets🚘🔋🔌⛽️ When will battery electric vehicle sales exceed those of hybrid electric vehicles in the US?
Manifold MarketsWill 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?
Manifold MarketsFord US vehicle sales volume in 2026
KalshiUS gas prices tomorrow
KalshiRegeln
For the purposes of this question a low carbon vehicle can be a plugin hybrid, a purely electric vehicle, a hydrogen powered vehicle, or any other that doesn't directly generate significant amounts of carbon emissions.
- The average vehicle generates 300-400 g CO2 per mile driven so any vehicle generating less than 40g CO2 per mile driven should qualify (with the caveat that combustion-engine vehicles running on gasoline that aren't plugin hybrids will never qualify).
- Passenger vehicles as defined by BTS or closest available https://www.bts.gov/content/new-and-used-passenger-car-sales-and-leases-thousands-vehicles
- Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The >50% threshold for low carbon vehicle sales must represent an enduring shift.
- The market may resolve YES based on data from a single month or quarter if it clearly indicates an enduring trend.
- If the trend is unclear from earlier data, the creator will wait until the long-term trend is clear, even past the market's close date if necessary.
