Will Iran experience political change before September 2026?
PolitikOne-OffUnterhaltungMusicMiddle East1MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 19.07.2026, 20:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-2
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 27.4%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
6
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multiple choice
Methodik
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Tagen
Veraltet17. Juli 26, 22:1931. Aug. 26, 23:59
Trends
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Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes27%
Volumentrend
$2517. Juli3T Daten19. Juli
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to Yes if, between the time of this market's creation and August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, any of the following events occur in Iran:
- Change in Supreme Leadership: Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to hold the office of Supreme Leader of Iran (due to death, resignation, ouster, or incapacitation) and is succeeded by another individual, or the office of Supreme Leader is officially abolished.
- Change in Presidency: Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to hold the office of President of Iran (due to death, resignation, impeachment, or ouster).
- Regime Overthrow or Systemic Change: The official governing system of Iran (the Islamic Republic) is overthrown, dissolved, or replaced; or a new constitution is formally adopted that fundamentally alters the governing structure of the country (e.g., abolishing the theocratic system).
- If none of these specific events are officially confirmed by credible global news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, or BBC) to have occurred prior to September 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No.