Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 09:52 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 78.1%
Prognostiker
35
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet20. Aug. 23, 16:13 UTC1. Jan. 01, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
will i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?
Manifold Markets💊 What diseases, ailments, or treatments will I get in my lifetime?
Manifold Markets⌛What will happen in my lifetime?
Manifold MarketsWill someone live to be 125 years old during my lifetime?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves either when I place such a vote or die
- This market is likely correlated with the OR of the following:
- The Republican party essentially remade such that they aren't horribly discriminatory to at minimum groups I care about
- I become one of those mythical detransitioners AND break up with my partner
- The United States becomes a one-party state AND I still live there
- I become so obscenely wealthy that it corrupts me