Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 54%
Prognostiker
110
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert4. Sept. 22, 20:49 UTC31. Dez. 39, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China ever surpass US gdp?
Manifold MarketsWill China's GDP surpass US GDP before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketUS GDP growth in Q3 2026
FutuurRegeln
Some beginning to doubt the 2030s projection https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-chinas-economy-surpass-the-u-s-s-some-now-doubt-it-11662123945
- Sep 4, 9:54pm: Probably I'll use The World Bank or something, if I consider reliable.
