Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 69.8%
Prognostiker
42
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 19 Stunden
Veraltet5. Aug. 23, 23:45 UTC2. Jan. 49, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Before 2037, will a major presidential candidate make cutting off funding to Israel part of their platform?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be on a major presidential ticket in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
PolymarketWill the 2028 Republican presidential candidate win any state Kamala Harris won in 2024?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRegeln
If a candidate who polls at over 20% in a Democratic or Republican primary or in a general election according to polling aggregators RealClearPolitics and Fivethirtyeight (or suitable alternative if both are defunct) uses the adjective "based" to describe something or someone, including themselves, in official communications, resolve to YES.
- Otherwise, resolve to NO.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+82.9pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-82.9pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.1pt0%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 847.662,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 668.756,2 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+3.5pt45.5%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 70% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048? entschieden?
- Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048? soll am 2. Januar 2049 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If a candidate who polls at over 20% in a Democratic or Republican primary or in a general election according to polling aggregators RealClearPolitics and Fivethirtyeight (or suitable alternative if both are defunct) uses the adjective "based" to describe something or someone, including themselves, in official communications, resolve to YES.