Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 69.8%
Prognostiker
43
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet5. Aug. 23, 23:45 UTC2. Jan. 49, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Before 2037, will a major presidential candidate make cutting off funding to Israel part of their platform?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will democrats have a major presidential candidate from the centrist wing of the party?
Manifold MarketsWhich EU country will disqualify a major presidential candidate or a major political party next?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be on a major presidential ticket in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?
PolymarketWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?
PolymarketRegeln
If a candidate who polls at over 20% in a Democratic or Republican primary or in a general election according to polling aggregators RealClearPolitics and Fivethirtyeight (or suitable alternative if both are defunct) uses the adjective "based" to describe something or someone, including themselves, in official communications, resolve to YES.
- Otherwise, resolve to NO.
