Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028??

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 60.2% (Stand: 25. Oktober 2026).

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

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Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:15 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4

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Ja 60.2%

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Fragetyp

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1. Aug. 26, 16:22 UTC1. Jan. 29, 02:59 UTC

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If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion.
(Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)
Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description.
My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines).
Some previous comments I did.