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Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Roman Shogdzhiev become the youngest chess Grandmaster ever?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Strength can be assessed through either human play or through playing with machines.
- GM level means >2500, or whatever the rating cutoff is for the GM title at resolution
