Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
12.0 Pkt. (24h)One-OffWeather22TManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBelow 4.6 million km² 99%+12.0ptFührend unter 7 Optionen
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24. Aug. 26, 17:28 UTC1. Okt. 26, 16:00 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Arctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026?
FutuurLowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026
KalshiMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
PolymarketAntarctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
FutuurWill the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the average minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?
KalshiRegeln
Each answer resolves independently.
- An answer resolves YES if the National Snow and Ice Data Center records at least one qualifying daily Arctic sea-ice extent strictly below that answer's threshold.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- The measurement is the lowest individual daily Extent value in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index Version 4 Northern Hemisphere daily CSV for dates from December 19, 2025 through October 1, 2026, measured in millions of square kilometers.
- A value exactly equal to a threshold does not count as below it.
- Use the data available at 10:00 AM ET on October 7, 2026; later revisions are ignored.
Offene Märkte
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 232.515,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 227.313,9 €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Houston+41.0pt71%
- Miami-6.0pt69%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 186.088,3 €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+36.0pt81.7%
- 90° to 91°-29.0pt7.7%
- 94° or above+3.0pt7.7%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt68.2%
- 82° to 83°-12.0pt24.3%
- 79° or below-3.0pt4.7%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No89%
- Yes-4.0pt11%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 66.667,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 28.645,4 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Below 4.6 million km² mit 99% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? entschieden?
- Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? soll am 1. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Each answer resolves independently.