UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the OBR report headroom of £10bn or more against the stability rule?
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22. Sept. 26, 14:33 UTC28. Okt. 26, 12:00 UTC
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Resolves YES if the OBR's October 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook states a margin of £10.0 billion or more against the current budget (stability) rule in the rule's target year, after Budget measures, as printed in the outlook's executive summary.
- If it reports margins for more than one year, the target year named in the fiscal mandate governs.
- Resolution Foundation estimated about £5bn before any Budget measures on 7 September 2026.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, before the speech and before the OBR publishes its forecast.
- The creator may trade in this market.
- Resolution follows the sources named above.
