Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 91.5%
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 26 Minuten
21. Nov. 23, 20:05 UTC1. Nov. 26, 22:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Significant attack on post-quantum signature Dilithium published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsSignificant attack on post-quantum signature SPHINCS+ published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsSignificant attack on post-quantum KEM Kyber published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsDid the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves Yes, if, before November 2026, an attack on quantum or conventional computer of the signature scheme FALCON (1) is published (preprint, journal article or conference proceeding), that leads to NIST dropping the algorithm from its post-quantum standard, or discouraging its use; or alternatively, if multiple recognized/leading cryptographers recommend against its use.
- I reserve the right to discuss in the comments, temporarily halt trading, and possibly even resolve N/A on ambiguity.
- Suggestions and comments on resolution criteria are welcome if made well in advance of the resolving event
- (1) https://falcon-sign.info/
