Aktuelle Community-Prognose
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6
Fragetyp
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet19. Nov. 23, 21:38 UTC1. Nov. 26, 22:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Significant attack on post-quantum signature SPHINCS+ published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsSignificant attack on post-quantum signature FALCON published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsSignificant attack on post-quantum signature Dilithium published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsDid the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves Yes, if, before November 2026, an attack on quantum or conventional computer of the Key Encapsulation Mechanism Kyber (1) is published (preprint, journal article or conference proceeding), that leads to NIST dropping the algorithm from its post-quantum standard, or discouraging its use; or alternatively, if multiple recognized/leading cryptographers recommend against its use.
- This algorithm is notably used in Signal (2), and downstream adopters of the Signal protocol (though it is coupled with elliptic curve key exchange such that attacks on both are necessary for key interception)
- I reserve the right to discuss in the comments, temporarily halt trading, and possibly even resolve N/A on ambiguity.
- Suggestions and comments on resolution criteria are welcome if made well in advance of the resolving event
- (1) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyber
- (2) https://signal.org/blog/pqxdh/
