Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 91.1%
Prognostiker
31
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet10. Feb. 25, 22:38 UTC1. Juli 30, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Tor Parsons (Tor's Cabinet of Curiosities) publicly come out as trans by EoY 2026?
Manifold Markets60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
KalshiHow many of the 50 celebrities on DeathList 2026 will pass away?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an orgy on the moon by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?
Manifold MarketsHarry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
KalshiRegeln
Announced and confirmed by them, or credible clear reports that they don't live together and/ or are separated.
- Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria clarification:
- Death does not count: Only a deliberate decay of the relationship (through divorce or separation) meets the resolution criteria.
- Focus on relationship decay: The market outcome is based solely on whether the relationship falls apart, not on events such as a death.
- Update 2025-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market's deadline of 'mid 2030' is defined as the end of day on June 30, 2030, California time.
