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  3. Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
Manifold Markets

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

KITechnikOne-Off974J
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Manifold Markets
Dies before AGI has been developed 14%
Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker

75

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 6 Tagen

Veraltet
13. Sept. 23, 18:031. Jan. 00, 22:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Dies before AGI has been developed14%

Regeln

https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"

Manifold Markets
  • For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks.
  • Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
  • This is a follow-up to this market:
  • https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000

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In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"

Manifold Markets
  • For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks.
  • Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
  • This is a follow-up to this market:
  • https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000