Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 56.3%
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51
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Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet29. Aug. 23, 03:29 UTC2. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsIs Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRegeln
The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/
- There is sometimes speculation about whether the author Wertifloke is a pseudonym of noted rationalist fanfic author Eliezer Yudkowsky.
- Let's bet on it!
- This market is conditional on strong evidence coming out in favor of one outcome or the other.
- This market will trust Eliezer Yudkowsky's honor not to lie, and if he makes a relevant joke, to admit that it was a joke when asked.
- Likewise it will trust the word of others with a strong record of commitment to the truth.
Offene Märkte
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+46.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.9pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 659.882,3 €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-6444%
- 65-8925%
- <4019%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 23.823 €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- Yes-17.0pt68%
- No32%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3164,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2633,9 €
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes+4.0pt18%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18.136,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1035 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.363,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 952,8 €
KALSHIUS test scores in Math in 2026?
- No significant difference+8.0pt39%
- Significant decrease-6.0pt34%
- Significant increase-31.4pt10%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 49.823 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 56% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? entschieden?
- Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? soll am 2. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/