Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
2031 12.2%Führend unter 19 Optionen
2031 12.2%Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert14. Okt. 24, 14:05 UTC31. Dez. 40, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold Markets[don't bet yet, finalizing details] Will a Musk Company or Elon do large geoengineering projects for global warming?
Manifold MarketsWill we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040?
ForecastExWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040?
ForecastExRegeln
This market will resolve according to the Global surface temperature chart on Wikipedia’s English page on Climate Change.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to the year in which the red line in the chart (’20-year-smoothing’) first reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius.
- This approach aligns with the IPCC definition of the 1.5 degree target.
- Should the chart be no longer available on Wikipedia, the market will resolve using another neutral source that tracks average long-term warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
