Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.8%
Prognostiker
156
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet10. März 24, 00:19 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?
Manifold MarketsHow many justices will Trump appoint to SCOTUS?
Manifold MarketsWho will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?
Manifold MarketsWho will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
PolymarketPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegeln
This market resolves yes if Donald Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027.
- Only a justice who is confirmed by the Senate counts.
- If Donald Trump is not re-elected, this market resolves N/A. May differ from the same Biden conditional market due to different probabilities of also controlling the Senate and strategically timed retirements.
- See here for the market on if Biden wins:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-wins-will-she-appoint-ano)
Offene Märkte
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 695.731,8 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 294.676,9 €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 291.319,2 €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027? entschieden?
- If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves yes if Donald Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027.